Big Names, Bigger Cap: The 2025 NHL Free Agency Outlook

The 2025 NHL free agency period, set to open on July 1, 2025, at noon ET, promises to be an intriguing market with a mix of star talent and depth players looking for new contracts. With the salary cap projected to rise significantly to $95.5 million, teams will have more financial flexibility to pursue top unrestricted free agents (UFAs) and restricted free agents (RFAs). While some big names have already signed extensions, such as Igor Shesterkin and Mikko Rantanen, the remaining pool still features high-profile players like Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and Aaron Ekblad, alongside gritty contributors like Sam Bennett and Brock Boeser. The increased cap space is expected to spark competitive bidding, but the market’s depth thins out quickly after the top tier, making strategic signings crucial for teams aiming to bolster their rosters.

At the forefront of the UFA class is Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner, a dynamic two-way forward who posted a career-high 102 points in the 2024-25 season. Marner, a former Selke Trophy finalist known for his elite playmaking and penalty-killing prowess, could command a deal surpassing Artemi Panarin’s $11.6 million annual average value (AAV) from 2019, with estimates as high as $13-14 million per season. While the Maple Leafs have made efforts to extend him, Marner’s playoff struggles and Toronto’s cap constraints could see him hit the open market. Potential suitors include playoff contenders like Florida, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, and Vegas, as well as rebuilding teams like Chicago and San Jose willing to pay a premium for his services. His decision will be one of the most closely watched storylines of the offseason.

John Tavares, also of the Maple Leafs, is another marquee name in the 2025 UFA pool. The 34-year-old center, nearing 40 goals this season for the first time since 2018-19, remains a faceoff specialist and power-play threat despite a decline in skating speed. With his current $11 million AAV expiring, Tavares is likely to take a pay cut, potentially signing a shorter-term deal in the $6-7 million range. While he has expressed a desire to stay in Toronto, where he raises his young family, preliminary extension talks stalled due to a gap in negotiations. Teams like the Montreal Canadiens, seeking veteran leadership for their young core, could pursue Tavares, adding intrigue to the historic Leafs-Habs rivalry if he were to leave.

On the defensive side, Aaron Ekblad of the Florida Panthers stands out as a top UFA blueliner. The 28-year-old, a former Calder Trophy winner, has been a cornerstone for the Panthers’ recent Stanley Cup success but faces uncertainty after a recent suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing substances policy. Ekblad’s current $7.5 million AAV could climb above $9 million on a long-term deal, though the Panthers’ acquisition of Seth Jones with retained salary suggests they’re preparing for the possibility of him walking. Vladislav Gavrikov of the Los Angeles Kings, a shutdown defender with a plus-26 rating and 30 points this season, is another key defenseman likely to attract significant interest, especially if the Kings prioritize offensive additions over re-signing him.

The forward market features several other notable UFAs, including Sam Bennett of the Florida Panthers and Brock Boeser of the Vancouver Canucks. Bennett, a tenacious second-line center with 51 points this season, has been a playoff standout, co-leading the postseason with nine goals. His physical style and championship pedigree make him a valuable target, though his injury history could temper contract length. Boeser, projected by some to earn over $9 million annually, is a skilled shooter but lacks consistency as a line-driver, raising concerns about potential overpayment. Other veterans like Nikolaj Ehlers, Brad Marchand, and Matt Duchene could also draw interest, with Ehlers’ speed, Marchand’s playoff experience, and Duchene’s resurgence in Dallas making them appealing to contenders.

The goaltending market, however, is notably thin. With Shesterkin off the board after signing an extension with the New York Rangers, Jake Allen of the New Jersey Devils emerges as the top UFA goaltender. Allen, a reliable backup, may not satisfy teams seeking a true starter, pushing those in need to explore the trade market instead. Adin Hill and Karel Vejmelka, previously UFA-eligible, have also signed extensions, further depleting the pool. Teams desperate for goaltending stability may need to rely on reclamation projects or career backups, making this a challenging area for free-agent acquisitions.

Restricted free agents like Matthew Knies (Toronto), Mason McTavish (Anaheim), and Noah Dobson (NY Islanders) will also shape the offseason. Knies, a hard-nosed goal-scorer, could be a target for teams like the Utah Mammoth if Toronto faces cap issues. McTavish, coming off his first 20-goal season, is expected to command a significant raise, but a contract impasse could make him a rare RFA offer-sheet candidate. Dobson, an arbitration-eligible defenseman, holds leverage with only one year left until UFA status, potentially pushing the Islanders to secure him long-term or risk losing him. The rising cap environment may lead to inflated RFA deals, with teams like Vancouver and Calgary prioritizing extensions for young stars like Filip Chytil and Connor Zary.

Finally, the 2025 free agency period will also see teams scouring the NCAA and CHL markets for undrafted talent. Players like Brayden Crampton, a power-play quarterback from the WHL, and Ryan Kirwan, a physical forward with scoring touch, offer low-cost depth options. While few college free agents this year match the upside of past signings like Torey Krug or Collin Graf, teams like Toronto and Dallas have already begun signing prospects like John Prokop and Gleb Veremyev to entry-level deals. These low-risk additions can bolster organizational depth, particularly for rebuilding franchises looking to stock their prospect pipelines without breaking the bank.

The 2025 NHL free agency market offers a blend of star power, veteran experience, and emerging talent, amplified by a significant cap increase. While Marner, Tavares, and Ekblad headline the UFA class, the depth of the market will test general managers’ ability to balance high-profile signings with cost-effective moves. Teams must navigate a competitive landscape where overpaying for talent, as seen in past deals for players like Cody Ceci, could haunt franchises long-term. As July 1 approaches, the decisions made by players and teams alike will set the stage for the 2025-26 season, with playoff hopefuls and rebuilders vying to reshape their rosters.